x22x22

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $515.61
Potential profit: $515.61
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $298.61
Potential profit: $298.61
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $110.61
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108.7
Potential profit: $108.7
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.88
Potential profit: $99.88
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $96.77
Potential profit: $96.44
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.66

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $5.97
Potential payout: $84.77
Potential profit: $78.8
Multiplier: 14.20x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $6.07
Potential payout: $60.4
Potential profit: $54.33
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $59.45
Potential profit: $55.5
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$2.05

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.8
Potential payout: $59.3
Potential profit: $58.5
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$3.2

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $2.2
Potential payout: $53.76
Potential profit: $51.56
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: -$2.8

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.3%
Current value: $4.87
Potential payout: $43.25
Potential profit: $38.38
Multiplier: 8.89x
User PnL: -$2.13

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $41.67
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 28.9%
Current value: $10.59
Potential payout: $36.71
Potential profit: $26.12
Multiplier: 3.47x
User PnL: $4.59

Yes position

Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $34.47
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $4.3
Potential payout: $26.09
Potential profit: $21.78
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 21.7%
Current value: $4.67
Potential payout: $21.58
Potential profit: $16.91
Multiplier: 4.62x
User PnL: $1.67

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.28
Potential profit: $21.28
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $0.8
Potential payout: $16.39
Potential profit: $15.6
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.2
Potential profit: $15.2
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.2

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.23

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.93

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.94

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.11

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.77

No position

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.38

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.67

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.55

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.47

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.14

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.96

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $60 in February?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?