Poivre

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $18.75
Potential payout: $37.5K
Potential profit: $37.48K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$56.25

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $106.02
Potential payout: $19.28K
Potential profit: $19.17K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $14.82

Yes position

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $35
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.97K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $8.33K
Potential profit: $8.3K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$12.5

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $98.04
Potential payout: $3.7K
Potential profit: $3.6K
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $3.66
Potential payout: $2.44K
Potential profit: $2.44K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$132.46

No position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $166.76
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.5K
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$90.15

Yes position

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $187.5
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.31K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $82.5

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $64.33
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $1.37K
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$131.25

Yes position

Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $125.62
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $22.45

No position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $217.66
Potential payout: $1.24K
Potential profit: $1.03K
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $68.41

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2.3
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.15K
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$44.58

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $94.33
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.02K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$25.77

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $108.79
Potential payout: $805.86
Potential profit: $697.07
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.21

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 38%
Current value: $304
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $496
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: $113.6

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $197.63
Potential payout: $760.13
Potential profit: $562.5
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: $43.51

No position

Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $135.41
Potential payout: $712.7
Potential profit: $577.29
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $55.36

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $112
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $588
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$14.88

No position

Blue wave in 2026?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $189
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $511
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $99.46

No position

Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $225.16
Potential payout: $672.12
Potential profit: $446.96
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $78.42

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 16.7%
Current value: $111.15
Potential payout: $665.57
Potential profit: $554.42
Multiplier: 5.99x
User PnL: $31.25

Yes position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $75.68
Potential payout: $658.1
Potential profit: $582.42
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$49.36

Yes position

Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $33.11
Potential payout: $650.48
Potential profit: $617.37
Multiplier: 19.65x
User PnL: -$13.05

Yes position

Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $155.47
Potential payout: $647.78
Potential profit: $492.31
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $52.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $848.98

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $806.35

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $496.91

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $475.8

No position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $457.11

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $396.79

No position

Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $378.72

No position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $371.03

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $331.35

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $317.05

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $292.2

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $290.76

No position

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $284.6

No position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $276.07

Yes position

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273.6

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $263.38

No position

Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $256.04

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $254.07

No position

Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.45

Yes position

Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $249.26

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?