groth

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $23.28K
Potential payout: $24.08K
Potential profit: $806.84
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.66K

No position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.17K
Potential profit: $18.17K
User PnL: -$5.59K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $11.55K
Potential payout: $14K
Potential profit: $2.45K
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $2.19K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $8.01K
Potential payout: $13.03K
Potential profit: $5.02K
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $2.4K

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $7.22K
Potential payout: $8.35K
Potential profit: $1.13K
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $1.28K

Yes position

Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.7K
Potential profit: $7.7K
User PnL: -$296.41

No position

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Implied probability: 86.1%
Current value: $4.92K
Potential payout: $5.72K
Potential profit: $794.51
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $36.36

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.26K
Potential profit: $5.26K
User PnL: -$330.46

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $5.11K
Potential payout: $5.17K
Potential profit: $59.49
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $3.31K

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $4.75K
Potential payout: $4.8K
Potential profit: $45.6
User PnL: $319.52

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $3.6K
Potential payout: $4.14K
Potential profit: $538.33
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $1K

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 38.7%
Current value: $1.57K
Potential payout: $4.06K
Potential profit: $2.49K
Multiplier: 2.59x
User PnL: $506.8

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.73K
Potential profit: $3.73K
User PnL: -$76.26

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.7K
Potential profit: $3.7K
User PnL: -$248.99

Yes position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $3.05K
Potential payout: $3.65K
Potential profit: $602.28
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $828.43

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $3.16K
Potential payout: $3.4K
Potential profit: $237.71
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $822.05

Yes position

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $1.4K
Potential payout: $3.14K
Potential profit: $1.74K
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $907.16

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $3.01K
Potential payout: $3.05K
Potential profit: $31.99
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.62K

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $32.78
Potential payout: $2.98K
Potential profit: $2.95K
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$115.82

Yes position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.62K
Potential profit: $2.62K
User PnL: -$241.98

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $12.24
Potential payout: $2.45K
Potential profit: $2.44K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$105.86

Yes position

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.37K
Potential profit: $2.37K
User PnL: -$51.55

No position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.27K
Potential profit: $2.27K
User PnL: -$70.29

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.91K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.22K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.95K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $8.47K

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.76K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $3.25K

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.74K

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.64K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08K

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.54K

No position

Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $921.91

No position

Crude Oil all time high by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $836.12

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $834.11

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $821.47

No position

Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $765.47

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $761

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $728.41

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $616.45

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $614.86

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $556.53

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $552.59

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $535.02

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?