Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.2%
- Current value
- $875.81
- Potential payout
- $14.24K
- Potential profit
- $13.37K
- Multiplier
- 16.26x
- User PnL
- -$62.26
Polymarket Trader
Rafael88
0x720bd69011aa5a9ef7846e88648218a7b33d37f6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.71K
- Realized PnL
- $6.16K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.2%
- Current value
- $2.28K
- Potential payout
- $2.75K
- Potential profit
- $462.82
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$40.47
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- User PnL
- -$1.1K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $326.26
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $928.6
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- -$165.72
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $511.82
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $588.87
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$126.58
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $498.21
- Potential payout
- $575.97
- Potential profit
- $77.76
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$4.46
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $163.72
- Potential payout
- $180.91
- Potential profit
- $17.19
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.1%
- Current value
- $11.75
- Potential payout
- $83.36
- Potential profit
- $71.61
- Multiplier
- 7.10x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $10.19
- Potential payout
- $11.14
- Potential profit
- $0.95
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.92
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $8.14
- Potential payout
- $9.63
- Potential profit
- $1.49
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $7.16
- Potential payout
- $7.44
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $5.92
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $4.19
- Potential payout
- $4.63
- Potential profit
- $0.44
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $3.63
- Potential payout
- $4.01
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $986.04
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $679.59
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $604.06
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $409.19
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $304.69
No position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $273.46
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $266.77
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.45
Yes position
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $229.32
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $200
No position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $186.35
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $181.49
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $176.2
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.55
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $156.06
Yes position
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.48
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $142.69
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $133.93
Yes position
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.6
No position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.53
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $118.9
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.02
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.11
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.71
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 83.4% 1.21 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 6.2% 2,418.55 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 25% 418.28 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 90% 14.64 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No 94.7% 17.78 shares
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?No 96% 21.17 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 6.2% 789.03 shares
- Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No 90% 29.33 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No 84% 28.9 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 83.8% 5.93 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 6.7% 11,033.28 shares
- Spread: United States (-1.5)United States 83.5% 764.58 shares