No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $10.3K
- Potential payout
- $11K
- Potential profit
- $698.5
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Polymarket Trader
WarpSpeed
@SerGawain
0x720dc97f38b9988d3b3b033e8f156fd4e82fea38
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $18.58K
- Realized PnL
- $994.21
- Win rate
- 83.3%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 6
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $8.26K
- Potential payout
- $8.46K
- Potential profit
- $194.52
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $299.32
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $15.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $84.5
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.4%
- Current value
- $2.04
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $7.96
- Multiplier
- 4.89x
- User PnL
- -$4.41
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $813.13
Yes position
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $134.52
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.01
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.15
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- -$130.59
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.8% 1,000 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes 15% 100 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No 97% 1,520.67 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No 96.9% 137.66 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 99.7% 15,848.32 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.2% 3,599.99 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No 95% 600 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?No 97.6% 131.19 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No 64.5% 10 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?No 99.1% 1,000 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No 93% 4,999.1 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No 93% 200 shares