Yes position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $106.93
- Potential payout
- $712.83
- Potential profit
- $605.91
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$173.49
Polymarket Trader
0x723503f6Ab55dCc1dfe5Ba48256C7734e4e04961-1771271649306
0x723503f6ab55dcc1dfe5ba48256c7734e4e04961
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $119.23
- Realized PnL
- $110.4
- Win rate
- 92.3%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 13
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
New Half-Life game by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $7.53
- Potential payout
- $181.54
- Potential profit
- $174
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$42.88
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $4.77
- Potential payout
- $114.94
- Potential profit
- $110.17
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$5.23
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 14, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $108.7
- Potential profit
- $108.7
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $86.8
- Potential profit
- $86.8
- User PnL
- -$3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $81.47
- Potential profit
- $81.47
- User PnL
- -$19.83
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.35
- Potential profit
- $68.35
- User PnL
- -$5.12
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $48.07
- Potential profit
- $48.07
- User PnL
- -$19.71
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $47.29
- Potential profit
- $47.29
- User PnL
- -$9.93
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.3
- Potential profit
- $27.3
- User PnL
- -$9.87
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$8
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $14.29
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.48
- Potential profit
- $12.48
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.64
- Potential profit
- $10.64
- User PnL
- -$2.97
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5AM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.26
- Potential profit
- $9.26
- User PnL
- -$2.96
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.34
- Potential profit
- $2.34
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.7
Yes position
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.41
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.65
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.42
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.54
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.04
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.45
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.32
Yes position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $1.36
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07
Yes position
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.66
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- New Half-Life game by June 30?Yes 38.9% 23.35 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETDown 35% 14.29 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 8.7% 114.94 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ETDown 41% 2.34 shares
- New Half-Life game by June 30?Yes 9.7% 41.27 shares
- Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?Yes 56% 53.65 shares
- Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?Yes 46% 33.61 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Yes 51% 30.3 shares
- New Half-Life game by June 30?Yes 44.5% 14.19 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Yes 44.3% 14.28 shares
- Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?Yes 52.2% 59.49 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ETUp 43.2% 25.27 shares