Yes position
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.3%
- Current value
- $157.04
- Potential payout
- $421.02
- Potential profit
- $263.98
- Multiplier
- 2.68x
- User PnL
- $109.75
Polymarket Trader
AMATEUR
0x72863e1e35e70a7760acb64a150d819b1e59559e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $933.1
- Realized PnL
- $1.45K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.1%
- Current value
- $243.14
- Potential payout
- $299.99
- Potential profit
- $56.85
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $32.95
Yes position
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $32.36
- Potential payout
- $208.79
- Potential profit
- $176.43
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$4.25
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $35.56
- Potential payout
- $203.18
- Potential profit
- $167.62
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $21.41
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Current value
- $31.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $168.9
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- $11.9
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.6%
- Current value
- $39.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $160.9
- Multiplier
- 5.12x
- User PnL
- -$9.3
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.1%
- Current value
- $32.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $167.9
- Multiplier
- 6.23x
- User PnL
- -$2.7
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $15.2
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $144.8
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$7.6
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $17.63
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $132.38
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $2.18
Yes position
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $129.03
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.4%
- Current value
- $45.96
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $84.05
- Multiplier
- 2.83x
- User PnL
- $17.91
Yes position
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $119.99
- Potential profit
- $119.09
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
Yes position
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.78
- Potential payout
- $119.99
- Potential profit
- $119.21
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $24.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $75.5
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $72.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $27.5
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $11.5
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $80.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $19.5
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $15.5
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $84.49
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $36.77
- Potential payout
- $98.05
- Potential profit
- $61.28
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- $20.1
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.9%
- Current value
- $21.12
- Potential payout
- $85
- Potential profit
- $63.88
- Multiplier
- 4.02x
- User PnL
- $15.8
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $3.03
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $56.97
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- -$1.11
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $59.91
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.01
Yes position
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.81
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $59.19
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$14.19
No position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.3
- Multiplier
- 71.43x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $25.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $24.25
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $593.36
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.48
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Ends Jan 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.31
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.29
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.53
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.8
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Jan 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.49
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- $43.7
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.35
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.2%
- Multiplier
- 3.31x
- User PnL
- $40.12
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.7
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Jan 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.87
No position
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.58
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.58x
- User PnL
- $25.62
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $24
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.76
No position
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.72
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.06
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.78
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.75
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.7
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.6
Yes position
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.79
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 54% 30 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 8% 60 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 43% 20 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes 29% 50 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Yes 24.3% 6 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 16.4% 17.55 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 38% 5 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 21% 30 shares
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 52% 50 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 10.3% 150 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 18% 100 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 100 shares