Yes position
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $370.09
- Potential payout
- $105.74K
- Potential profit
- $105.37K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$358.88
Polymarket Trader
McMurphy
0x72b4b094cdab7322f285fad576473aa3a2197eeb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.03K
- Realized PnL
- $1.56K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $292.05
- Potential payout
- $17.7K
- Potential profit
- $17.41K
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- $38.32
Yes position
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $25
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.98K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $3.88K
- Potential payout
- $8.34K
- Potential profit
- $4.46K
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$555.44
Yes position
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $127.65
- Potential payout
- $8.24K
- Potential profit
- $8.11K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$73.26
Yes position
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $119.35
- Potential payout
- $7.7K
- Potential profit
- $7.58K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$20.94
Yes position
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $33.75
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.47K
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$66.25
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $170
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $230
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $34
Yes position
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.56
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $159.44
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.56
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$1.05
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $4.95
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $105.05
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.75
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.75
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.99
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.27
- Potential payout
- $91.36
- Potential profit
- $91.09
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$19.73
Yes position
New pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.1
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $0.82
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.18
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- -$0.78
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.05
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.45
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.55
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $910.28
Yes position
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-12-03?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.94
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $115.2
No position
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $102.22
No position
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44
No position
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.43
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 9?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-01-28?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.7
Yes position
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.06
Yes position
Will EC Vitória win on 2025-12-07?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.04
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.4%
- Multiplier
- 7.49x
- User PnL
- $12.6
No position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.2
Yes position
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Multiplier
- 5.28x
- User PnL
- $9
No position
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.75
No position
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.3
No position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.26
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
No position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.1
No position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.1
Yes position
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes 21.9% 91.36 shares
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 1.5% 6,666.67 shares
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 1.5% 3,333.33 shares
- Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 2.5% 4,235.85 shares
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 28.9% 2,334.11 shares
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 34.3% 2,334.09 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 85% 1,289.99 shares
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes 2.3% 1,000 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes 0.1% 999.99 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.7% 110.57 shares
- Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 2.7% 6,881.29 shares
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Yes 6.1% 1,755.01 shares