No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $1.37K
- Potential payout
- $1.62K
- Potential profit
- $250.69
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $528.62
Polymarket Trader
sbregagnocche89
0x7326ea6cf55288ae36bebad7de44e8fb88a6d3ae
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.89K
- Realized PnL
- $3.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $94.05
- Potential payout
- $990
- Potential profit
- $895.95
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$203.85
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $795.8
- Potential payout
- $920
- Potential profit
- $124.2
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $147.2
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $838.88
- Potential payout
- $845.65
- Potential profit
- $6.77
- User PnL
- $139.9
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $610.6
- Potential payout
- $710
- Potential profit
- $99.4
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $100.9
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.2%
- Current value
- $457.33
- Potential payout
- $550
- Potential profit
- $92.68
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $96.83
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $404.38
- Potential payout
- $546.83
- Potential profit
- $142.45
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $63.84
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $452.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $47.5
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $142.5
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $465.54
- Potential payout
- $470
- Potential profit
- $4.46
- User PnL
- $54.84
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $416.29
- Potential payout
- $459.99
- Potential profit
- $43.7
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $159.4
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $201.05
- Potential payout
- $349.65
- Potential profit
- $148.6
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$8.6
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $288.9
- Potential payout
- $291.38
- Potential profit
- $2.48
- User PnL
- $24.32
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $133
- Potential payout
- $280
- Potential profit
- $147
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $7.5
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.7%
- Current value
- $213.09
- Potential payout
- $229.99
- Potential profit
- $16.9
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $8.69
No position
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $207.58
- Potential payout
- $209.99
- Potential profit
- $2.41
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $7.03
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.9%
- Current value
- $142.24
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $17.76
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $43.04
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $56.25
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $93.75
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- -$45.75
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $124.15
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $5.85
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $21.45
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $105.11
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $4.89
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.14
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $105.55
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $4.45
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.24
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $106
- Potential payout
- $108
- Potential profit
- $2
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $5.56
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $107.24
- Potential payout
- $108
- Potential profit
- $0.76
- User PnL
- $6.59
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $103.48
- Potential payout
- $105
- Potential profit
- $1.52
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $3.73
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $96.55
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $3.45
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $46.55
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $526.31
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $470.09
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $267.6
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $212.1
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.49
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.4
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.44
Yes position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.79
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.1
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.2
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.9
No position
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $97.32
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $88.51
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.2
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.44
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.63
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.1
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.52
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.76
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.72
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.6
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $38.05
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Yes 99.9% 285 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31?No 99.9% 102.99 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 99.7% 900 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes 99.9% 130 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes 99.8% 140 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes 99.9% 120 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes 97.9% 10 shares
- Iran leadership change by March 13?No 99.8% 500 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No 99.8% 300 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No 99.8% 161.69 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No 99.8% 1,000 shares