Bugoz

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $20.05
Potential payout: $97.81
Potential profit: $77.76
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $6.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $17.21
Potential payout: $88.24
Potential profit: $71.03
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $2.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $13.86
Potential payout: $84
Potential profit: $70.14
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $2.82

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $20.09
Potential payout: $78.8
Potential profit: $58.7
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $5.91

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $12.74
Potential payout: $77.2
Potential profit: $64.46
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$2.18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $74.81
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $13.09
Potential payout: $74.77
Potential profit: $61.69
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.96
Potential profit: $72.96
User PnL: -$1.11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $12.14
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $59.29
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $0.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71
Potential profit: $71
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67.33
Potential profit: $67.33
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $57.67
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $17.28
Potential payout: $65.22
Potential profit: $47.93
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65.22
Potential profit: $65.22
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $10.31
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $52.19
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $17.09
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $42.91
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $2.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $7.48
Potential payout: $59.83
Potential profit: $52.35
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$7.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $14.71
Potential payout: $57.69
Potential profit: $42.98
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $12.95
Potential payout: $53.96
Potential profit: $41.01
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$1.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $9.39
Potential payout: $53.66
Potential profit: $44.27
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $12.83
Potential payout: $53.48
Potential profit: $40.64
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $0.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $8
Potential payout: $53.33
Potential profit: $45.33
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $7.76
Potential payout: $51.7
Potential profit: $43.95
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $3.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $9.18
Potential payout: $50.99
Potential profit: $41.81
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $0.51

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.03

Yes position

Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.34

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $11.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 15.1%
Multiplier: 6.62x
User PnL: $10.53

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.91

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.46

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $9.42

No position

Netanyahu out by 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $9.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.66

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.58

No position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.57

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20?

Implied probability: 23%
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $8.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18?