cqk

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $15.83
Potential payout: $10.55K
Potential profit: $10.54K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$5.28

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $4.72K
Potential payout: $9.72K
Potential profit: $5.01K
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$322.06

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $50.09
Potential payout: $5.89K
Potential profit: $5.84K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $8.84

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $1.37K
Potential payout: $4.82K
Potential profit: $3.45K
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$10.01

No position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $2.3K
Potential payout: $4.42K
Potential profit: $2.12K
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $721.9

Yes position

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $1.75K
Potential payout: $4.42K
Potential profit: $2.67K
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $166.14

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.32K
Potential profit: $4.32K
User PnL: -$120.17

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $575.35
Potential payout: $3.7K
Potential profit: $3.12K
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: -$32.55

Yes position

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $251.31
Potential payout: $3.05K
Potential profit: $2.79K
Multiplier: 12.12x
User PnL: $103.05

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.01K
Potential profit: $3.01K
User PnL: -$6.03

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $154.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.85K
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: $55.5

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $1.99K
Potential payout: $2.99K
Potential profit: $1K
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$24.89

Yes position

Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.92K
Potential profit: $2.92K
User PnL: -$5.84

Yes position

Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $504.67
Potential payout: $2.66K
Potential profit: $2.15K
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$73.04

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.08K
Potential profit: $2.08K
User PnL: -$112.9

Yes position

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Implied probability: 10.2%
Current value: $168.41
Potential payout: $1.66K
Potential profit: $1.49K
Multiplier: 9.85x
User PnL: $88.58

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $75
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.43K
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: $4.5

Yes position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $1.11K
Potential payout: $1.42K
Potential profit: $304.42
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $605.43

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $108.2
Potential payout: $1.31K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 12.12x
User PnL: $9.98

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $82.79
Potential payout: $1.24K
Potential profit: $1.16K
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: $1.42

Yes position

Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.19K
User PnL: -$109.89

Yes position

Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.18K
User PnL: -$1.18

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.18K
User PnL: -$115.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

James Comey arrested by April 29?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.43K

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35K

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.11K

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.51K

Yes position

GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.45K

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $999.6

Yes position

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $985.46

Yes position

DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $882.61

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $870.45

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $861.22

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $834.29

Yes position

Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $828.86

No position

Will the next model released by DeepSeek debut at a score of at least 1460?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $808.57

Yes position

Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $758.84

Yes position

GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $747.45

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $723.99

No position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $682.67

Yes position

GPT-5.4 released by March 5?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $641.69

Yes position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $617.44

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $598.39

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?