Polymarket Trader

ill-pajamas

0x738b1cde2824a123d1c9c07cf512eae347056dc9

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $191.92
Realized PnL: $3.02K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $148.78
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $1.34K
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$2.94

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $497.99
Potential profit: $497.99
User PnL: -$25.86

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $43.13
Potential payout: $392.13
Potential profit: $349
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$22.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $508.33

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $381.58

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $211.19

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.52

Yes position

U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $182.7

Yes position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $133.88

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.9

No position

US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.38

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.43

No position

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.99

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $88.05

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.97

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.5

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.52

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.47

No position

U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.77

Yes position

Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.15

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.88

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $57

Yes position

Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.17

No position

Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.53

No position

Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.45

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Yes 15% 63.99 shares
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Yes 14% 102.35 shares
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Yes 13% 10 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 5.2% 497.99 shares
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Yes 38.5% 375.01 shares
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No 89.3% 200 shares
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?

Yes 81.1% 75.93 shares
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 5, 2026?

No 0.1% 3,002 shares
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 3, 2026?

Yes 74.2% 83.33 shares
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 1, 2026?

No 1.3% 254.2 shares
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?

Yes 35% 100 shares
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?

Yes 36% 100 shares