No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40K
- Potential profit
- $40K
- User PnL
- -$221.08
Polymarket Trader
chivoexpiatorio
0x73bb531d8cfabcdd61f9e7bc08e8d2554bc69473
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $993.46
- Realized PnL
- $36.37K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $30K
- User PnL
- -$1.44K
Yes position
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.25K
- Potential profit
- $14.25K
- User PnL
- -$266.31
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.49K
- Potential profit
- $12.49K
- User PnL
- -$1.03K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.18K
- Potential profit
- $8.18K
- User PnL
- -$170.76
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.98K
- Potential profit
- $5.98K
- User PnL
- -$570.75
Yes position
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.87K
- Potential profit
- $5.87K
- User PnL
- -$1.07K
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.28K
- Potential profit
- $5.28K
- User PnL
- -$2.61K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$1.5K
Yes position
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.18K
- Potential profit
- $4.18K
- User PnL
- -$89.03
Yes position
Rachel Reeves out as Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.89K
- Potential profit
- $2.89K
- User PnL
- -$464.16
Yes position
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.28K
- Potential profit
- $2.28K
- User PnL
- -$121.97
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.83K
- Potential profit
- $1.83K
- User PnL
- -$164.76
Yes position
Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.72K
- Potential profit
- $1.72K
- User PnL
- -$254.99
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $1.7K
- User PnL
- -$425.5
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.9%
- Current value
- $357.75
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.14K
- Multiplier
- 4.19x
- User PnL
- $117.75
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.48K
- Potential profit
- $1.48K
- User PnL
- -$174.52
Yes position
Will Ilhan Omar be charged with fraud?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- User PnL
- -$21.8
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Bank of England rate cut in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $856
- Potential profit
- $856
- User PnL
- -$368.5
No position
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $635.71
- Potential payout
- $842
- Potential profit
- $206.29
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $273.48
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $821
- Potential profit
- $821
- User PnL
- -$18.81
Yes position
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $680
- Potential profit
- $680
- User PnL
- -$32.21
Yes position
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $629
- Potential profit
- $629
- User PnL
- -$16.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.01K
Yes position
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.98K
Yes position
Biden drops out of presidential race?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.59K
Gold position
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.51K
Yes position
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.32K
Yes position
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35K
No position
Fed rate cut by June meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65K
No position
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Biden drops out in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris say "Ceasefire" during DNC speech?
Ends Aug 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $756.53
Yes position
Will U.S. summer tourism decline in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $674.63
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $552
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $423.56
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $398.13
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $358.43
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $339.93
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $338.62
Yes position
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?
Ends Sep 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $247.5
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.61
No position
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.07
Yes position
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.82
No position
Will Gold close below $3200 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.67
Yes position
Will Gold hit $3,400 before June?
Ends May 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?Yes 31.6% 809 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?Yes 0.7% 2,000 shares
- Epstein client list released by June 30?Yes 1% 4,010.31 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes 91.1% 1,038 shares
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?No 99.6% 5,357.65 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 44% 1,529.01 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 44% 1,529.01 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 69% 3,058.03 shares
- Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Yes 47% 4,000 shares
- Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Yes 63.5% 280 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 25% 3,560.91 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?Yes 17% 2,000 shares