xcaiox

Implied probability: 75.1%
Current value: $30.43K
Potential payout: $40.5K
Potential profit: $10.07K
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$1.67K

No position

Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $2.69K
Potential payout: $2.79K
Potential profit: $97.72
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $471.18

Yes position

Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $1.06K
Potential payout: $1.81K
Potential profit: $752.92
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$366.17

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $1.22K
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $158.94
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $133.9

No position

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $1.17K
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $32.44
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $101.48

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $384.76
Potential payout: $777.3
Potential profit: $392.54
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$0.74

No position

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $624.02
Potential payout: $713.17
Potential profit: $89.15
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $41.75

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $11.49
Potential payout: $696.61
Potential profit: $685.12
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$510.5

Yes position

Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $450.41
Potential payout: $629.94
Potential profit: $179.53
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: -$29.49

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $599.9
Potential profit: $599.9
User PnL: -$479.17

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 85.1%
Current value: $422.83
Potential payout: $497.15
Potential profit: $74.32
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.83

Yes position

Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $389.67
Potential payout: $461.15
Potential profit: $71.48
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $9.43

No position

Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $450.03
Potential profit: $450.03
User PnL: -$300.75

No position

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $124.23
Potential payout: $394.37
Potential profit: $270.14
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: -$163.51

No position

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $311.14
Potential payout: $379.44
Potential profit: $68.3
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$18.97

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $349.53
Potential payout: $371.25
Potential profit: $21.72
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $52.03

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 18.7%
Current value: $64.77
Potential payout: $346.35
Potential profit: $281.58
Multiplier: 5.35x
User PnL: $14.77

Yes position

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $253.56
Potential payout: $335.84
Potential profit: $82.28
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $17.64

No position

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $270.68
Potential payout: $312.93
Potential profit: $42.25
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $1.56

No position

Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $291.46
Potential payout: $300.16
Potential profit: $8.7
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $66.65

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $62.48
Potential payout: $255
Potential profit: $192.53
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $12.48

Yes position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $101.76
Potential payout: $228.67
Potential profit: $126.91
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$35.44

No position

Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $224.12
Potential profit: $224.12
User PnL: -$183

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $213.63
Potential payout: $223.11
Potential profit: $9.48
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $13.63

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Bolsonaro guilty?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15K

No position

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $766.05

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $645.97

Yes position

Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $466.11

No position

Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $323.67

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $318.55

Yes position

Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $247.62

Yes position

Will "The Secret Agent" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218.9

No position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in August?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.67

No position

GPT ads by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.39

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.57

No position

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130

No position

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.27

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.17

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.23

No position

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.3

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.2

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.37

No position

Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.54

Yes position

Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.39

No position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.06

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.01

No position

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?