Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- User PnL
- -$20
Polymarket Trader
0x7494B8B78CdF56250e2Af49f1F8Ad33BEc40E2a3-1767299892680
0x7494b8b78cdf56250e2af49f1f8ad33bec40e2a3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $573.17
- Realized PnL
- $324.05
- Win rate
- 62.5%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $171.06
- Potential payout
- $2.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.84K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$147.54
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.58K
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $223.64
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$73.36
Yes position
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $47.94
- Potential payout
- $826.57
- Potential profit
- $778.63
- Multiplier
- 17.24x
- User PnL
- -$21.84
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.63
- Potential payout
- $631.22
- Potential profit
- $630.59
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$99.37
Yes position
New pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $43.7
- Potential payout
- $514.17
- Potential profit
- $470.47
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$26.38
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $443.9
- Potential profit
- $443.9
- User PnL
- -$126.87
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $193.64
- Potential profit
- $193.54
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.9
Yes position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.79
- Potential payout
- $176.38
- Potential profit
- $175.58
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$39.77
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $29.82
- Potential payout
- $170.4
- Potential profit
- $140.58
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.13
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $16.15
- Potential payout
- $153.85
- Potential profit
- $137.69
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$3.85
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $7.86
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $135
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$2.14
Yes position
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $3.05
- Potential payout
- $90.91
- Potential profit
- $87.86
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- $2.05
Yes position
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $4.13
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $70.88
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$4.88
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.9%
- Current value
- $12.66
- Potential payout
- $63.77
- Potential profit
- $51.11
- Multiplier
- 5.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.05
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $62.51
- Potential profit
- $62.51
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $9.71
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $49.12
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Yes position
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.51
- Potential payout
- $53.35
- Potential profit
- $52.84
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.49
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $48.36
- Potential profit
- $47.68
- Multiplier
- 71.43x
- User PnL
- -$29.33
Yes position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.3
- Potential profit
- $46.3
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $44.7
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.05
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.2
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.18
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.07
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.33
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.87
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.44
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.99
Yes position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.54
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.3
Yes position
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.26
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.71
Yes position
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-12?
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Multiplier
- 25.64x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Israel position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
No position
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-12?
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.19
No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
No position
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$0.89
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Netanyahu out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes 13% 153.85 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 17% 58.82 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 18% 127.78 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 15% 777.33 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Yes 7% 142.86 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 2.6% 193.64 shares
- Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?Yes 0.1% 1,300 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 15.8% 631.22 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 17.4% 765 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 31.3% 213.98 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 32% 93.75 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 54% 18.52 shares