Polymarket Trader

Harelavg

0x74aa5088f698140ee48d321ad68fd8d3eba3163d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.04
Realized PnL: -$24.52
Win rate: 33.3%
Open positions: 7
Closed positions: 15
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $272.88
Potential profit: $272.88
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $22.22
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $2.04
Potential payout: $21.43
Potential profit: $19.39
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.8
Potential profit: $9.8
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $6.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.42
Potential profit: $5.42
User PnL: -$1.61

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.17

Yes position

Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.78

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.18

No position

Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.97

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.11

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$21.17

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Yes 4% 6.25 shares
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Yes 7% 55.55 shares
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 99.9% 7.78 shares
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 18.3% 272.88 shares
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 0.2% 500 shares
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 18.1% 76.41 shares
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 64.2% 7.79 shares
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 18% 1,456.97 shares
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 29.7% 5.42 shares
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 45.8% 76.42 shares
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 7.2% 1,382.34 shares
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 6.7% 74.63 shares