Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $192.76
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $1.14K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$233.03
Polymarket Trader
chakyt
0x74d79f21ea1dd1972f2451121e3f35ab107a433e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $815.97
- Realized PnL
- $555.85
- Win rate
- 45.5%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $465.44
- Potential payout
- $465.44
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $265.44
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $95.9
- Potential payout
- $278.06
- Potential profit
- $182.15
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$4.1
Yes position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $277.78
- Potential profit
- $277.78
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $227.27
- Potential profit
- $227.27
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $61.86
- Potential payout
- $181.93
- Potential profit
- $120.08
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- -$38.14
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400.25
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.23
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99.51
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.64
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.96
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.84
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.25
Yes position
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.33
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.75
Yes position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.71
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.19
Yes position
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.45
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will the US strike Iran next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$36.22
Yes position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$52.41
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$72.71
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$128.65
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 33% 684.24 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Yes 1.3% 62.5 shares
- Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Yes 1.1% 50 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 31% 645.16 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Yes 2.1% 347.23 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Yes 55% 181.93 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 36% 278.06 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 43% 465.44 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Yes 16% 62.5 shares
- Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Yes 20% 50 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 36% 277.78 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 99.8% 931.79 shares