Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $265.47
- Potential payout
- $5.06K
- Potential profit
- $4.79K
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$205.02
Polymarket Trader
manchot
0x74e6c1260ac5448c00eb63e1f6894ecd090c99e8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.1K
- Realized PnL
- $23.05K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.6%
- Current value
- $751
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- Multiplier
- 2.66x
- User PnL
- $471
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.74K
- Potential payout
- $1.74K
- Potential profit
- $0.87
- User PnL
- $96.86
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.1%
- Current value
- $354.58
- Potential payout
- $1.42K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- Multiplier
- 3.99x
- User PnL
- -$204.92
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.28K
- Potential payout
- $1.28K
- Potential profit
- $0.64
- User PnL
- $124.56
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $255
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $745
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$55
Yes position
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $278.24
- Potential payout
- $529.99
- Potential profit
- $251.74
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $245.66
Yes position
Will Jaleel Amador be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.74
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$14.04
Yes position
Will Megan Rodriguez be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.74
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$14.04
Yes position
Will James Felton Keith be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.74
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$14.04
Yes position
Will Theo Chino-Tavarez be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.74
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$14.04
No position
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $204.84
- Potential payout
- $481.98
- Potential profit
- $277.14
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $12.09
Yes position
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $281.19
- Potential payout
- $449.9
- Potential profit
- $168.71
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $49.24
Yes position
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $244.49
- Potential payout
- $394.34
- Potential profit
- $149.85
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $42.76
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $245.5
- Potential payout
- $392.8
- Potential profit
- $147.3
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $97.41
Yes position
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $179
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $21
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $47
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $87.62
- Potential profit
- $87.62
- User PnL
- -$35.19
No position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $23.33
- Potential payout
- $53.64
- Potential profit
- $30.31
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Yes position
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $7.6
- Potential payout
- $39.99
- Potential profit
- $32.39
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$24.8
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.17
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $20.83
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.93
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.55K
Yes position
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?
Ends Sep 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.98K
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65K
No position
Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44K
No position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $940.37
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $882.54
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $754.11
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $611.95
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $559.19
No position
U.S. fertility rate up in Q2 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $530.28
No position
BitBoy convicted?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $507.07
Yes position
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $395
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $318.89
Yes position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $309.9
No position
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $304.78
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $301.18
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $295.08
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $265.98
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $265.64
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $261.33
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.07
No position
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $230.49
Yes position
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.56
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes 94.4% 1,736.36 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 93.5% 75.94 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.9% 2,793.57 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 89% 712.83 shares
- Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?No 96.3% 659.01 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 77.7% 2,011.58 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No 96.7% 1,616.57 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?No 97% 1,616.57 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes 98% 1,500 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 40.2% 87.62 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 13.3% 4,367.97 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 43% 500 shares