Yes position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $447.34
- Potential payout
- $89.47K
- Potential profit
- $89.02K
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$358.49
Polymarket Trader
probability
@selectedadverse
0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.23K
- Realized PnL
- $230.21K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02?
Ends Nov 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.4K
- Potential profit
- $83.4K
- User PnL
- -$438.58
No position
Will Denmark win on 2025-10-12?
Ends Oct 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.15K
- Potential profit
- $38.15K
- User PnL
- -$440.33
India position
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.95K
- Potential profit
- $32.95K
- User PnL
- -$672.87
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.72K
- Potential profit
- $31.72K
- User PnL
- -$878.59
No position
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
Ends Nov 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.88K
- Potential profit
- $26.88K
- User PnL
- -$2.08K
Yes position
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.48K
- Potential profit
- $26.48K
- User PnL
- -$1.51K
No position
Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.09K
- Potential profit
- $25.09K
- User PnL
- -$258.21
Yes position
Will Georgia win on 2025-10-14?
Ends Oct 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.04K
- Potential profit
- $24.04K
- User PnL
- -$24.04
Yes position
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.59K
- Potential profit
- $23.59K
- User PnL
- -$2.79K
Yes position
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.05K
- Potential profit
- $23.05K
- User PnL
- -$678.81
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $333.84
- Potential payout
- $23.02K
- Potential profit
- $22.69K
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$874.8
Yes position
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.64K
- Potential profit
- $22.64K
- User PnL
- -$1.49K
Yes position
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.37K
- Potential profit
- $22.37K
- User PnL
- -$1.84K
No position
Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.2K
- Potential profit
- $22.2K
- User PnL
- -$222.01
Yes position
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $154.62
- Potential payout
- $22.09K
- Potential profit
- $21.93K
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$237.39
Yes position
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.06K
- Potential profit
- $22.06K
- User PnL
- -$1.66K
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.62K
- Potential profit
- $20.62K
- User PnL
- -$76.99
Yes position
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.08K
- Potential profit
- $20.08K
- User PnL
- -$2.65K
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $20K
- User PnL
- -$1.75K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.54K
- Potential profit
- $18.54K
- User PnL
- -$402.2
Yes position
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.34K
- Potential profit
- $18.34K
- User PnL
- -$2.4K
Yes position
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $136.75
- Potential payout
- $18.23K
- Potential profit
- $18.1K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$196.66
Yes position
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.5K
- Potential profit
- $17.5K
- User PnL
- -$193.18
Yes position
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.49K
- Potential profit
- $17.49K
- User PnL
- -$578.63
Yes position
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-06?
Ends Dec 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.86K
- Potential profit
- $16.86K
- User PnL
- -$49.19
Adelaide Strikers position
Big Bash League: Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Stars (Game 1)
Ends Dec 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.83K
- Potential profit
- $16.83K
- User PnL
- -$739.58
Yes position
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.64K
- Potential profit
- $16.64K
- User PnL
- -$295.93
Yes position
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.63K
- Potential profit
- $16.63K
- User PnL
- -$619.51
Yes position
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.27K
- Potential profit
- $15.27K
- User PnL
- -$2.28K
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $15K
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.52K
- Potential profit
- $14.52K
- User PnL
- -$2.73K
Yes position
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.97K
- Potential profit
- $13.97K
- User PnL
- -$398.06
Yes position
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $6.83
- Potential payout
- $13.66K
- Potential profit
- $13.65K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$210.18
Yes position
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.56K
- Potential profit
- $13.56K
- User PnL
- -$163.22
No position
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.28K
- Potential profit
- $13.28K
- User PnL
- -$322.17
Yes position
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $19.59
- Potential payout
- $13.06K
- Potential profit
- $13.04K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$194.47
Yes position
Will OG Anunoby Jr. be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $6.53
- Potential payout
- $13.06K
- Potential profit
- $13.05K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$207.53
Yes position
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $19.59
- Potential payout
- $13.06K
- Potential profit
- $13.04K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$194.47
Yes position
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $71.82
- Potential payout
- $13.06K
- Potential profit
- $12.99K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$142.24
Yes position
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $32.65
- Potential payout
- $13.06K
- Potential profit
- $13.03K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$181.42
No position
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-14?
Ends Oct 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.01K
- Potential profit
- $13.01K
- User PnL
- -$87.56
Yes position
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.51K
- Potential profit
- $12.51K
- User PnL
- -$449.13
Yes position
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.51K
- Potential profit
- $12.51K
- User PnL
- -$326.34
Yes position
Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.41K
- Potential profit
- $12.41K
- User PnL
- -$108.53
MI Cape Town position
SA20: MI Cape Town vs Paarl Royals (Game 1)
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.4K
- Potential profit
- $12.4K
- User PnL
- -$13.14
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.25K
- Potential profit
- $12.25K
- User PnL
- -$322.28
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.25K
- Potential profit
- $12.25K
- User PnL
- -$322.28
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.25K
- Potential profit
- $12.25K
- User PnL
- -$322.28
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.25K
- Potential profit
- $12.25K
- User PnL
- -$322.28
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.34K
Yes position
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.19K
No position
Will Runcorn Linnets FC vs. Buxton FC end in a draw?
Ends Oct 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.37K
Yes position
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
Ends Nov 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.78K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.6K
No position
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-14?
Ends Oct 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.07K
Yes position
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.51K
No position
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.11K
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.04K
Yes position
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.59K
Yes position
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08?
Ends Nov 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.45K
Yes position
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.99K
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.52K
Yes position
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-26?
Ends Dec 26, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.51K
Yes position
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27?
Ends Sep 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.41K
No position
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $4.3K
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.29K
Yes position
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.16K
Yes position
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.88K
Fernandes position
Cong vs. Fernandes
Ends Nov 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.77K
Yes position
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.25 million and $2.5 million by December 16?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57K
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.52K
Yes position
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.46K
Yes position
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4K
No position
Will Romania vs. Austria end in a draw?
Ends Oct 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.38K
No position
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.26K
Yes position
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21K
No position
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?
Ends Sep 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.17K
Yes position
Will Brentford vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
Ends Sep 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.07K
Yes position
Will Manchester City vs. Everton end in a draw?
Ends Dec 26, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.94K
Yes position
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?
Ends Sep 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.93K
Yes position
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.9K
Yes position
Will Oscar Piastri win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Ends Sep 15, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.68K
No position
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $2.48K
Yes position
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.48K
Yes position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
Yes position
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
No position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35K
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.3K
Astros position
Angels vs. Astros
Ends Sep 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.3K
No position
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13?
Ends Sep 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.22K
Magic position
Magic vs. Lakers
Ends Nov 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.12K
No position
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.7%
- Multiplier
- 4.05x
- User PnL
- $1.78K
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
Timberwolves position
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves
Ends Nov 2, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
No position
Will Everton win on 2025-09-29?
Ends Sep 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7K
Yes position
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-14?
Ends Oct 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.69K
Yes position
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
No position
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08?
Ends Nov 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?No 91.3% 31 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?No 66.6% 185 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by June 30?No 96.6% 133 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by June 30?No 91% 40.75 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?No 89.8% 95 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?Yes 11% 44 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30?Yes 10% 119.76 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30?Yes 23.7% 116.08 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?Yes 30.6% 42.41 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?Yes 24% 43.82 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30?Yes 15.3% 41.7 shares
- Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?Yes 15.5% 152.19 shares