snols

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $90.05K
Potential payout: $91.43K
Potential profit: $1.37K
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $17.35K

No position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.26K
Potential profit: $36.26K
User PnL: -$19.74K

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 88.6%
Current value: $31.83K
Potential payout: $35.94K
Potential profit: $4.12K
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $18.03K

No position

Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.06K
Potential profit: $30.06K
User PnL: -$5.65K

Yes position

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.47K
Potential profit: $25.47K
User PnL: -$4.82K

Yes position

Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $12.03
Potential payout: $24.05K
Potential profit: $24.04K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$60.29

Yes position

Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.18K
Potential profit: $18.18K
User PnL: -$1.71K

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $13.43K
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $1.58K
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.68K

Yes position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $35.93
Potential payout: $14.37K
Potential profit: $14.33K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$6.19K

No position

Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.14K
Potential profit: $9.14K
User PnL: -$6.23K

Yes position

Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.63K
Potential profit: $7.63K
User PnL: -$1.49K

Yes position

Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.62K
Potential profit: $7.62K
User PnL: -$261.82

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.81K
Potential profit: $6.81K
User PnL: -$802.73

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$1.86K

No position

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.24K
Potential profit: $5.24K
User PnL: -$3.71K

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$450

No position

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $4.87K
Potential payout: $4.89K
Potential profit: $26.91
User PnL: $706.96

Yes position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.8K
Potential profit: $4.8K
User PnL: -$409.72

Yes position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.14K
Potential profit: $4.14K
User PnL: -$411.24

No position

Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $4K
User PnL: -$2.72K

No position

Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $4K
User PnL: -$399.99

Yes position

Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.8K
Potential profit: $3.8K
User PnL: -$101.62

Yes position

Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.76K
Potential profit: $3.76K
User PnL: -$267.28

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $3.26K
Potential payout: $3.33K
Potential profit: $71.64
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $461.48

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.91K

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $13.14K

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.2K

Yes position

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.42K

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.7K

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5K

No position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.37K

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.97K

No position

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.97K

Yes position

Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94K

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $840

No position

Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $840

No position

Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $829.8

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $669.48

No position

Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $654.34

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $530.43

No position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $506.68

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $479.99

Yes position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $461.69

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.92

Yes position

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $208.4

Yes position

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200

No position

Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?