ArchBishopSusan

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $438
Potential payout: $58.4K
Potential profit: $57.96K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $87.6

Yes position

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $386.79
Potential payout: $40.71K
Potential profit: $40.33K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$750.93

Yes position

Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $380
Potential payout: $40K
Potential profit: $39.62K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $100

Yes position

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $227.5
Potential payout: $35K
Potential profit: $34.77K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $17.5

Yes position

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $387.64
Potential payout: $23.49K
Potential profit: $23.11K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$112.32

Yes position

Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $130
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.87K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $30

Yes position

Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $181.71
Potential payout: $19.13K
Potential profit: $18.95K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $28.69

Yes position

Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $92.86
Potential payout: $14.29K
Potential profit: $14.19K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$7.14

Yes position

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $107.14
Potential payout: $14.29K
Potential profit: $14.18K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $7.14

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 9.9%
Current value: $1.38K
Potential payout: $14K
Potential profit: $12.62K
Multiplier: 10.15x
User PnL: -$301

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $96.74
Potential payout: $12.9K
Potential profit: $12.8K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$3.25

Yes position

Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $106.25
Potential payout: $12.5K
Potential profit: $12.39K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $6.25

Yes position

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $93.75
Potential payout: $12.5K
Potential profit: $12.41K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$6.25

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $510
Potential payout: $12K
Potential profit: $11.49K
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$90

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $268.64
Potential payout: $10.58K
Potential profit: $10.31K
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: $44.64

Yes position

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $85
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.92K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $79.22
Potential payout: $8.34K
Potential profit: $8.26K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$101.79

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $182.9
Potential payout: $7.78K
Potential profit: $7.6K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$79.48

Yes position

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.98K
Potential profit: $6.98K
User PnL: -$2.39K

Yes position

Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $47.22
Potential payout: $5.56K
Potential profit: $5.51K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $47.22
Potential payout: $5.56K
Potential profit: $5.51K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $38.89
Potential payout: $3.7K
Potential profit: $3.67K
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$5.55

Yes position

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $21.17
Potential payout: $2.49K
Potential profit: $2.47K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.5
Potential profit: $499.5
User PnL: -$34.97

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Multiplier: 4.66x
User PnL: $1.89K

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 4.8%
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: $628.18

Yes position

Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $322

No position

US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $232.28

Yes position

Will Trump say 'Putin' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.15

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $160

Yes position

Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?

Ends Mar 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $157.36

Yes position

Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $154

No position

U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $139.7

No position

Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?

Ends Mar 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.1

Yes position

Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.07

Yes position

Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.35

Yes position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.37

Yes position

Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.24

Yes position

Will Trump issue an executive order on March 18?

Ends Mar 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.88

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Reserve" during Crypto Summit on Friday?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.89

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 5+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.86

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Coin" 5+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49

Yes position

Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.63

No position

Will Donald Trump say "Rug Pull" during Crypto Summit on Friday?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.6

Yes position

Will Trump say 'Canada' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.95

No position

Will Trump say 'Peace' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?