Olma

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $29.44
Potential payout: $309.9
Potential profit: $280.46
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$16.55

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $23.23
Potential payout: $172.09
Potential profit: $148.86
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$18.1

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $97.2
Potential profit: $96.86
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$3.62

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $7.1
Potential payout: $83.52
Potential profit: $76.42
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$5.44

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $81.43
Potential profit: $81.35
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$5.62

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $1.17
Potential payout: $73
Potential profit: $71.83
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$2.81

No position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.59
Potential payout: $69
Potential profit: $68.41
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$7.22

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $65.21
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$1.19

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $65.51
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.48

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.89
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $65.11
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1.09

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $65.84
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.82

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $2.24
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $62.76
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$1.41

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $2.21
Potential payout: $63
Potential profit: $60.8
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$1.74

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $2.24
Potential payout: $56
Potential profit: $53.76
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$1.68

No position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $14.3
Potential payout: $52
Potential profit: $37.7
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$2.44

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $4.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $45.25
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.65

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.05
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $6.05
Potential payout: $48.23
Potential profit: $42.18
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $44.73
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$5.62

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $2.48
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $42.53
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.52

No position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $14.3
Potential payout: $44
Potential profit: $29.7
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$0.56

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $43.58
Potential payout: $44
Potential profit: $0.42
User PnL: $41.82

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.62
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$0.62

No position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 22?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $1.46
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.54
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$0.54

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $452.26

Yes position

AWS service disrupted by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.54

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.16

Magic position

Magic vs. Pistons

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.95

Lakers position

Rockets vs. Lakers

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.1

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 11AM ET

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.03

Timberwolves position

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.62

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.7

Down position

Solana Up or Down - February 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.44

Trail Blazers position

Trail Blazers vs. Suns

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.19

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11AM ET

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET