Polymarket Trader

wolfmoon

0x77a18f221083fdd5ca17aef29ff48aaaa669de3d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $7.89K
Realized PnL: $41.55K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.12K
Potential profit: $15.12K
User PnL: -$5.96K

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $3.1K
Potential payout: $5.21K
Potential profit: $2.11K
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$54.79

Yes position

Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.31K
Potential profit: $3.31K
User PnL: -$420

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $2.04K
Potential payout: $2.25K
Potential profit: $213.88
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $101.31

Yes position

Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $653.21
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $693.62
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$46.79

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $635.53
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $469.74
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $5.53

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $898
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $190.48
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$52

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $332.79
Potential payout: $864.38
Potential profit: $531.6
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $859.68
Potential profit: $859.68
User PnL: -$617.05

Yes position

Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 21, 2027

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $233.13
Potential payout: $321.56
Potential profit: $88.43
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$21.87

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $35.43
Potential profit: $35.41
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.37

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.56K

Yes position

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.19K

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.68K

No position

Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.14K

Yes position

Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.58K

Yes position

Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04K

Yes position

Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"?

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $974.12

Yes position

Will 'Wicked' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $964.48

Yes position

Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $909.28

Yes position

Will Israel be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $887.4

Yes position

Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $847.73

Yes position

Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $845.25

No position

Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $680.91

Yes position

Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $634.81

Yes position

Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $571.62

No position

Will Estonia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $470.91

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $420.76

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $390.97

Yes position

Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $362.57

Yes position

Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?

Ends Jun 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $344.9

Yes position

Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $333.33

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $301.41

No position

Will US leave NATO by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $294.89

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Yes 57% 912.28 shares
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

No 65.4% 1,393.73 shares
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Yes 81.9% 207.62 shares
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Yes 57% 192.98 shares
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Yes 87% 804.6 shares
US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No 50% 500 shares
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?

No 0.2% 388.06 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 99.8% 2,650.79 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 950 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 99.8% 1,176.47 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 97.7% 50 shares
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Yes 78.7% 52.1 shares