vertexa93

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $39.93
Potential payout: $140.15
Potential profit: $100.22
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $2.42
Potential payout: $115.37
Potential profit: $112.94
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: -$1.13

No position

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $41.4
Potential payout: $81.99
Potential profit: $40.58
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$1.12

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $8.38
Potential payout: $79.82
Potential profit: $71.44
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $1.43
Potential payout: $77.38
Potential profit: $75.95
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$0.62

No position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?

Implied probability: 76%
Current value: $52.65
Potential payout: $69.27
Potential profit: $16.62
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $2.43

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $54.72
Potential payout: $61.48
Potential profit: $6.76
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $17.7
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $42.3
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $24.3
Potential payout: $59.99
Potential profit: $35.69
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$1.66

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $8.45
Potential payout: $58.25
Potential profit: $49.81
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.87

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $7.74
Potential payout: $57.34
Potential profit: $49.6
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $5.83
Potential payout: $53
Potential profit: $47.17
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $0.99

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $1.27
Potential payout: $50.02
Potential profit: $48.75
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$0.66

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $13.12
Potential payout: $42.32
Potential profit: $29.2
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: -$0.22

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $28.2
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $11.8
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $12.44
Potential payout: $37.14
Potential profit: $24.7
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $30.78
Potential payout: $36
Potential profit: $5.22
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $8.47
Potential payout: $35.27
Potential profit: $26.81
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $20.68
Potential payout: $34.76
Potential profit: $14.08
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.31

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $6.52
Potential payout: $32.93
Potential profit: $26.41
Multiplier: 5.05x
User PnL: -$0.71

No position

Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $20.34
Potential payout: $24.07
Potential profit: $3.73
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $17.9
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.1
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $4.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $15.7
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $13.3
Potential payout: $15.2
Potential profit: $1.9
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $712.45

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $706.94

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $626.16

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $623.61

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 21.9%
Multiplier: 4.57x
User PnL: $483.56

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $419.89

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: $286.6

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $147.27

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $127.91

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.58

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $58.68

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $26.77

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $15.93

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $15.2

Yes position

Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $12.58

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?

Implied probability: 69%
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: -$3.6

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$7.5

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?

Implied probability: 66.5%
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$8.63

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$8.84

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?

Implied probability: 16.9%
Multiplier: 5.92x
User PnL: -$9.08

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?

Implied probability: 83.1%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$21.05

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$25.2

No position

Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 71.5%
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: -$26.11

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?