No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $750.01
- Potential profit
- $749.26
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.66
Polymarket Trader
0x77Fa7e303F7a8017016A8388EF7ebA40a4a31A63-1764354685885
0x77fa7e303f7a8017016a8388ef7eba40a4a31a63
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.7
- Realized PnL
- $2.72K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $7.95
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $2.05
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $321.43
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $292.67
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.76
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $223.87
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $208.81
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $200.88
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $175.78
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $135.15
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.42
Yes position
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.03
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $80.57
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.65
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $60.79
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $57.8
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.55
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.34
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.26
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.38
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.51
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.22
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.18
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36.71
Yes position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.18
Yes position
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.61
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 0.1% 20 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 11% 3.8 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes 2.2% 100 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 56% 10 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 52% 10.63 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 52% 10.62 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 54.8% 14.16 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 52.1% 41.52 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 52.2% 18.59 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 52.3% 10 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 52% 10 shares
- Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No 52.3% 5.1 shares