No position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $241.29
- Potential payout
- $383
- Potential profit
- $141.71
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- -$65.61
Polymarket Trader
OneLastHurrah
0x7803ddf6a3ee55dc0ca81e727eba23a627359e91
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.39K
- Realized PnL
- $213.83
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
Ends Jan 16, 2027- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $232.5
- Potential payout
- $372
- Potential profit
- $139.5
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$43.28
Yes position
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
Ends Jan 16, 2027- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $210.19
- Potential payout
- $331
- Potential profit
- $120.82
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$25.32
Yes position
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $140.97
- Potential payout
- $245.16
- Potential profit
- $104.19
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$33.4
No position
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $107.73
- Potential payout
- $126
- Potential profit
- $18.27
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $3.11
No position
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $36.6
- Potential payout
- $63.11
- Potential profit
- $26.51
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- -$7.71
No position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $43.76
- Potential payout
- $50.01
- Potential profit
- $6.25
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $29.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $20.25
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $21.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $28.25
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $21.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $28.75
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $40.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $9.75
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$3.25
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $39.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $10.25
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $34.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $15.75
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
No position
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $40.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $9.75
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33%
- Current value
- $16.5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $33.5
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Ends Oct 24, 2027- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $28.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $21.76
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
N
No position
Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $33.46
- Potential payout
- $39.6
- Potential profit
- $6.14
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
No position
Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?
Ends Dec 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $16.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $3.5
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title?
Ends Oct 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $8.3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $11.7
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.7
No position
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $15.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $4.5
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title?
Ends Oct 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $11.14
- Potential payout
- $17
- Potential profit
- $5.87
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.13
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $10.71
- Potential payout
- $16.35
- Potential profit
- $5.64
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $4.56
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $7.44
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $4.74
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $7.26
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $35.44
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.95
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.31
No position
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.6
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $12.49
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $9.93
No position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $9.54
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.22
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $8.03
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $7.7
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.39
Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.63
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.98
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.81
No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $4.64
No position
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $4.41
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.2
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.19
No position
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $2.84
No position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $2.34
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.24
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $2.17
Yes position
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $2.03
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.73
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 56% 0.88 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?No 91% 0.93 shares
- World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Yes 91% 0.87 shares
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?No 81% 0.79 shares
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?No 86% 0.84 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes 45% 0.39 shares
- Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?No 67% 0.75 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 31% 0.82 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 90% 0.37 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 34% 0.44 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 60% 0.96 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No 69% 55 shares