HorribleWork

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $197.68K
Potential profit: $197.68K
User PnL: -$197.68

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.77K
Potential payout: $107.29K
Potential profit: $102.51K
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: $375.5

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.3%
Current value: $13.89K
Potential payout: $104.8K
Potential profit: $90.92K
Multiplier: 7.55x
User PnL: -$1.14K

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.45K
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $98.55K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $2.25K
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $97.75K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $550.1

No position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75K
Potential profit: $75K
User PnL: -$13.77K

No position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $67.34K
Potential profit: $67.34K
User PnL: -$3.85K

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64.06K
Potential profit: $64.06K
User PnL: -$21.65K

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.11K
Potential profit: $61.11K
User PnL: -$34.37K

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.81K
Potential profit: $46.81K
User PnL: -$9.01K

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $57
Potential payout: $38K
Potential profit: $37.94K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$57

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.87K
Potential profit: $37.87K
User PnL: -$1.59K

No position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.62K
Potential profit: $35.62K
User PnL: -$11.46K

Yes position

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33K
Potential profit: $33.33K
User PnL: -$4.18K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $23.58K
Potential payout: $28.58K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $7.73K

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $5.21K
Potential payout: $28.22K
Potential profit: $23.01K
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $663.1

Yes position

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.59K
Potential profit: $21.59K
User PnL: -$4.32K

Yes position

Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $20K
User PnL: -$10K

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.85K
Potential profit: $15.85K
User PnL: -$2.88K

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.34K
Potential profit: $15.34K
User PnL: -$9.82K

No position

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$800.02

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $60
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.94K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$490

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $9.84K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $160
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $540

Athletics position

New York Yankees vs. Athletics

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.25K
Potential profit: $8.25K
User PnL: -$8.25

No position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.95K
Potential profit: $7.95K
User PnL: -$365.03

Yes position

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $7K
User PnL: -$699.87

No position

Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.91K
Potential profit: $6.91K
User PnL: -$1.92K

Yes position

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.63K
Potential profit: $6.63K
User PnL: -$365.62

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $596.76
Potential payout: $5.5K
Potential profit: $4.9K
Multiplier: 9.22x
User PnL: $162.25

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $518.04
Potential payout: $5.45K
Potential profit: $4.93K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$246.25

Anthropic position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $4.66K
Potential payout: $4.86K
Potential profit: $201.87
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $41.35

Yes position

Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?

Ends Oct 21, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $276.13
Potential payout: $4.09K
Potential profit: $3.81K
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$301.44

Yes position

Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.8K
Potential profit: $3.8K
User PnL: -$378.09

Yes position

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 Week of May 18 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.38K
Potential profit: $3.38K
User PnL: -$54.05

Miami Marlins position

Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.26K
Potential profit: $3.26K
User PnL: -$3.26

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $202.66
Potential payout: $3.05K
Potential profit: $2.84K
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$777.13

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.3K
Potential profit: $2.3K
User PnL: -$149.34

Yes position

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.75 Week of May 18 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.12K
Potential profit: $2.12K
User PnL: -$433.25

No position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $808.85
Potential payout: $1.54K
Potential profit: $731.82
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $379.38

Philadelphia Phillies position

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.4K
User PnL: -$1.44

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 18 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $1.38K
User PnL: -$204.82

Yes position

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of May 18 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.15K
User PnL: -$11.35

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$586.38

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $859
Potential profit: $859
User PnL: -$546.82

Yes position

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $825.63
Potential profit: $825.63
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of May 18 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $769.81
Potential profit: $769.81
User PnL: -$69.34

Yes position

Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of May 18 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $706.43
Potential profit: $706.43
User PnL: -$87.59

Team WE position

LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $670.97
Potential profit: $670.97
User PnL: -$53.68

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $54.74K

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $34.83K

Sean Strickland position

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.07K

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.6K

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.44K

Yes position

Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.25K

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15K

No position

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.79K

No position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.48K

Demoor position

Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.99K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10K

Yes position

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.98K

Knicks position

Spurs vs. Knicks

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.4K

Yes position

Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Ends Mar 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.23K

No position

Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.13K

No position

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.54K

No position

Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.27K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.18K

Yes position

Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77K

No position

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.45K

No position

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.36K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.32K

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.13K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.05K

No position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.98K

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.84K

No position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.83K

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8K

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75K

No position

Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75K

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.67K

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.31K

No position

Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3K

Rockets position

NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.28K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.2K

No position

Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.17K

Yes position

Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.14K

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1K

Yes position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08K

No position

Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.05K

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.99K

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8K

Yes position

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.7K

No position

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?