Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27
- Potential profit
- $27
- User PnL
- -$8.37
Polymarket Trader
Serenewoodm
0x781755ce68fca455a61857cf5adb1e73baa4ca17
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $21.77
- Realized PnL
- $5.53
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 12
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $21.77
- Potential payout
- $23.16
- Potential profit
- $1.39
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.23
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.43
- Potential profit
- $5.43
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.48
- Potential profit
- $4.48
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.09
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.16
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.88
No position
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
Yes position
Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 95% 23.16 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 92% 26.09 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No 96.3% 23.88 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 95.4% 24.23 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 94.9% 24.24 shares
- Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?Yes 95% 23.16 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 95% 23.15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 95% 23.16 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes 97.1% 22.84 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes 96.3% 22.85 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 98.9% 7 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 3?Yes 31% 27 shares