Polymarket Trader

Efreon

0x789e052206267705ff69a689d318305ad8e13bb1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $73.66
Realized PnL: $2.32K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

No position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $836.5
Potential profit: $836.5
User PnL: -$266.52

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $64.03
Potential payout: $457.37
Potential profit: $393.34
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$23.67

Yes position

Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.56
Potential payout: $375.27
Potential profit: $374.71
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$3.12

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $255.47
Potential profit: $255.47
User PnL: -$18.33

No position

Will Trump say "Midterm" this week?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $103.41
Potential profit: $103.41
User PnL: -$15.32

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $2.36
Potential payout: $57.53
Potential profit: $55.17
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: -$1.29

Yes position

Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $34.8
Potential profit: $34.45
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$1.39

Yes position

Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $1.59
Potential payout: $29.75
Potential profit: $28.16
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$0.79

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $29.09
Potential profit: $27.64
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.33
Potential profit: $26.33
User PnL: -$12.11

Yes position

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $2.32
Potential payout: $21.05
Potential profit: $18.74
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$1.68

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $15.67
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.01
Potential profit: $8.01
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.32
Potential profit: $7.32
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $952.17

No position

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218.33

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.96

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.04

No position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $96.34

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.02

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $80.52

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.97

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.7

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.88

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.26

Yes position

Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.55

Yes position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.82

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.77

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.74

No position

Will Trump say "Autopen" during WHCA Dinner events?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.45

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.63

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.42

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.63

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.67

No position

Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.55

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on May 1, 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.46

No position

Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.03

Yes position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.01

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Yes 15% 338 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 73% 70.18 shares
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?

Yes 8% 29.75 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 68% 3.69 shares
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?

Yes 1% 375.27 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Yes 7% 55.55 shares
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?

Yes 5% 34.8 shares
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?

Yes 4.3% 19.87 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 68% 1.5 shares
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?

Yes 7.9% 19.87 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 67% 2.33 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 68% 77.71 shares