Yes position
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $17.29
- Potential payout
- $1.57K
- Potential profit
- $1.55K
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$297.77
Polymarket Trader
pastbe
0x78a19803306d350cd1120bb07fcfe91a665be6bd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $587.48
- Realized PnL
- $30.44K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $2.17
- Potential payout
- $254.81
- Potential profit
- $252.64
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$52.4
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $2.36
- Potential payout
- $225
- Potential profit
- $222.64
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$78.64
No position
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $147.45
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $2.55
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $93.45
Yes position
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $116.25
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $33.75
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $62.25
Yes position
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $1.2
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $148.8
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$52.8
No position
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $129
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $21
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $75
No position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $62.94
- Potential payout
- $100.71
- Potential profit
- $37.76
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $26.69
No position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $85.12
- Potential payout
- $98.4
- Potential profit
- $13.28
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $48.71
Yes position
Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Aug 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $23.7
- Potential payout
- $24.5
- Potential profit
- $0.8
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $14.88
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.03K
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.9K
No position
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.53K
No position
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.45K
Yes position
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.34K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.37K
No position
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $986.74
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $925.89
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $896.98
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $888.75
No position
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 10–15%?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $884.03
No position
Weed rescheduled by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $840.28
Yes position
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $736.5
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $726.3
No position
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $619.63
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $559.75
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $537
Yes position
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $506.25
No position
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $455.36
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $435.75
No position
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $427.23
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $423.6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Yes 0.2% 100 shares
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?No 9.1% 235 shares
- Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?Yes 22% 102 shares
- Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?Yes 23% 58 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No 52% 43.97 shares
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?No 99.2% 16.63 shares
- Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Yes 93% 456.48 shares
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?No 57% 600 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?Yes 13% 450 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes 19% 225 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 94% 300 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?Yes 22.3% 712.11 shares