Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10K
Polymarket Trader
Arron-
0x78c2894cca670265cf7e0d8682c9f2f8e8d18f4b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $28.54K
- Win rate
- 68.4%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 19
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Latest Resolved Positions
No open position details returned
This trader has an open-position count, but open position cards are not available yet. Showing their latest closed positions instead.
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.74K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.74K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $791.87
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $241.88
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.16
No position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.27
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.39
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.37
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.61
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 79.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 76.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 62.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.2%
- Multiplier
- 4.32x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 37.4%
- Multiplier
- 2.68x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.4%
- Multiplier
- 4.90x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 99.3% 183,229.61 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes 99% 6,719.55 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes 99% 10,000 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes 99% 8,685.76 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes 99.2% 9,985.61 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes 98.9% 5,780.58 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes 99% 98.05 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes 98.8% 2,311.97 shares
- Epstein suicide note released by May 8?No 98.6% 1,015.97 shares
- Epstein suicide note released by May 8?No 98.5% 2,178.04 shares
- Epstein suicide note released by May 8?No 98.5% 1,072.82 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 99.8% 45,867.75 shares