Polymarket Trader

0x78C4Cf6aF37b6757C33B04a8D12B014730c5d99E-1770888392589

0x78c4cf6af37b6757c33b04a8d12b014730c5d99e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $232.39
Realized PnL: -$375.77
Win rate: 50%
Open positions: 4
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $416.67
Potential profit: $416.67
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $232.39
Potential payout: $275.02
Potential profit: $42.63
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $32.39

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $129.87
Potential profit: $129.87
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100.87
Potential profit: $100.87
User PnL: -$39.96

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.48

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.21

Yes position

Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.08

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $13.8

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.76

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.59

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.79

Yes position

Will Nebius say "Cash" during earnings call?

Ends Feb 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.59

Yes position

Will Nebius say "Meta" during earnings call?

Ends Feb 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.29

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.87

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Nebius say "Nvidia" during earnings call?

Ends Feb 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$28.26

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$236.41

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

No 72.7% 275.02 shares
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?

Yes 89% 100 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 91% 384.62 shares
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?

Yes 74.9% 133.47 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 99.9% 53.03 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 81% 250 shares
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 57% 175.44 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 77% 129.87 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 69% 144.93 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 66% 303.03 shares
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 48% 300.85 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Yes 59% 169.49 shares