Polymarket Trader

gawkgawk

0x78d4be5f5e9900cbe771e6e2e21a959f02a9c133

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $17.13
Realized PnL: $111.47
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 5
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $34
User PnL: -$1.02

Yes position

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.45
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $4.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $5.75
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $1.15

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $9.91
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.09
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.58
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$0.78

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Solana Up or Down - January 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43.53

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.79

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.18

Yes position

Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.18

No position

Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.94

No position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.56

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.14

Yes position

Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.74

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.1

Yes position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.88

Leviatán Esports position

Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.75

India position

T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

No position

Grok 4.20 released by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 3% 34 shares
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes 44% 5 shares
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes 14% 10 shares
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes 31% 10 shares
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

No 96.6% 10 shares
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs

Leviatán Esports 35% 20 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Yes 74% 6.76 shares
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies

India 99.9% 5 shares
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies

West Indies 20% 5 shares
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Yes 7.6% 19.99 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

No 51% 5 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Yes 72.1% 12.19 shares