okakokak

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $502.28
Potential payout: $555
Potential profit: $52.73
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$19.42

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $201.7
Potential payout: $222.87
Potential profit: $21.17
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$1.11

Yes position

Remote IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $38
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $162
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $12

No position

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $152.56
Potential payout: $199.43
Potential profit: $46.87
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $49.14

Yes position

Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $39.18
Potential payout: $182.25
Potential profit: $143.06
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$27.34

Yes position

Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $25.34
Potential payout: $158.37
Potential profit: $133.03
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$49.89

Yes position

Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $10.01
Potential payout: $149.44
Potential profit: $139.43
Multiplier: 14.93x
User PnL: $5.92

Yes position

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.39
Potential payout: $146.08
Potential profit: $144.69
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$35.3

Yes position

Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $18.51
Potential payout: $123.43
Potential profit: $104.91
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$13.58

Yes position

Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $28.63
Potential payout: $121.82
Potential profit: $93.19
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$64.56

Yes position

Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $13.35
Potential payout: $121.38
Potential profit: $108.03
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$31.56

No position

Will Fomo launch a token by September 30 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $101.84
Potential payout: $116.39
Potential profit: $14.55
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $25.62

Yes position

Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $36.13
Potential payout: $111.16
Potential profit: $75.03
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$17.45

Yes position

Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $6.38
Potential payout: $111.04
Potential profit: $104.65
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$17.05

No position

Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $24
Potential payout: $106.67
Potential profit: $82.67
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$17.07

Yes position

Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?

Ends Oct 21, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $8.44
Potential payout: $106.19
Potential profit: $97.75
Multiplier: 12.58x
User PnL: -$22.88

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $5.8
Potential payout: $105.52
Potential profit: $99.72
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$2.64

Yes position

Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $100.12
Potential profit: $99.97
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$10.61

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $14.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $85.5
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$11.5

Yes position

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $9.8
Potential payout: $93.38
Potential profit: $83.58
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$8.15

No position

Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $80.74
Potential profit: $80.09
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$8.17

Yes position

Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $7.22
Potential payout: $80.18
Potential profit: $72.96
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$12.66

Yes position

Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $7.97
Potential payout: $79.72
Potential profit: $71.75
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$10.36

Yes position

Anduril IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $7.02
Potential payout: $78.03
Potential profit: $71.01
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$24.44

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $385.52

No position

Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.14

Yes position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $350.23

No position

Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $311.14

No position

Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $297.6

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Jensen Huang in January 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.87

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.66

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 16?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.2

Yes position

Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $274.67

Yes position

Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273.16

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $267.45

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $257

No position

Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026)

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $251.74

No position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $251.36

No position

Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in January 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.25

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $234.12

No position

Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.73

No position

Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $219.52

Yes position

Khamenei public appearance by Friday?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218.76

Yes position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $209.22

Yes position

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208.89

Yes position

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208.33

Yes position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 58.4%
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $207.56

No position

Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?