Retarts

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $435.45
Potential payout: $537.59
Potential profit: $102.14
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $51.76

Yes position

Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $204.07
Potential payout: $306.87
Potential profit: $102.8
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $69.58

No position

Will Te Pāti Māori win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $67.55
Potential payout: $68.09
Potential profit: $0.54
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $14.24
Potential payout: $52.76
Potential profit: $38.51
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will ACT New Zealand win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $42.08
Potential payout: $42.33
Potential profit: $0.25
User PnL: $3.52

No position

Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $29.2
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $10.8
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $9.6

Yes position

Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $37.6
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $2.4
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $16.8

Yes position

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori + NZF?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.59
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $6.11
Potential payout: $26
Potential profit: $19.89
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$1.43

No position

Will New Zealand First Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $24.03
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $0.98
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.77

No position

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $10.01
Potential payout: $22.5
Potential profit: $12.49
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 5-10%?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $2.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.4
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will voter turnout be between 82% and 84% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $13.55
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $1.41
Potential payout: $9.68
Potential profit: $8.27
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: $0.91

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $7.14
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.68
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + Maori?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $4.98
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Christopher Luxon out by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $2.43
Potential payout: $2.88
Potential profit: $0.45
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.88

No position

Will Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $2.04
Potential profit: $1.1
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $0.62
Potential payout: $1.69
Potential profit: $1.08
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$0.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.63

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.7

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.53

No position

Trump's sovereign wealth fund acquires TikTok before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.86

No position

North Korea missile test by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.41

No position

Did Kanye sell his twitter account?

Ends Mar 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.4

No position

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.06

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?

Ends May 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.48

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.09

Yes position

Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $3.05

No position

Israel strike on Iran on June 25?

Ends Jun 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99

No position

Will Diddy be sentenced to more than 50 years in prison?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.77

Zelenskyy position

Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.6

Yes position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.13

No position

TikTok sale announced before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: July

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.64

No position

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.31

No position

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.21

No position

US kicks trans members out of military before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?