Polymarket Trader

johnprofit

0x7a528b1b4235aff40e3e2997089e4629aab0a10d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $137.64
Realized PnL: $27.05
Win rate: 79.2%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will QoR Win North America ACE Stage 3

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $8.97
Potential payout: $69
Potential profit: $60.03
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$24.03

Yes position

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 38%
Current value: $19
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $31
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will M80 Win North America ACE Stage 3

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $12.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $27.2
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$1.8

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.2
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$8.4

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $22.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $17.2
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.2%
Current value: $2.88
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $37.12
Multiplier: 13.89x
User PnL: -$9.18

No position

Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $20.59
Potential payout: $39.99
Potential profit: $19.4
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 34%-36%?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $3.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.3
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will Delta Q2 passenger load factor be between 83% and 85%?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $3.8
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.2
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$7.4

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $9.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $10.3
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 25.3%
Current value: $5.06
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $14.94
Multiplier: 3.95x
User PnL: -$3.98

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $15.3
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$4.9

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $9.2
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $10.8
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 18, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $6.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $13.9
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$3.7

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $1.72
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $2.28
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $0.6

Down position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $1.98
Potential payout: $3.02
Potential profit: $1.04
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $2.1
Potential payout: $2.62
Potential profit: $0.52
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $0.34

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 38%
Current value: $0.74
Potential payout: $1.96
Potential profit: $1.22
Multiplier: 2.63x
User PnL: $0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $7.02

No position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $4.61

Yes position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: $4.08

No position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10%
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: $2.95

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.14

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.37

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.3%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $1

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 18, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 36%
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: $0.49

No position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.20 Week of June 22 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $0.24

Yes position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 71.5%
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will QoR Win North America ACE Stage 3

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 87%
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of June 22 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,080 Week of June 22 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of June 22 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of June 22 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 72%
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: -$0.09

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 41% 5 shares