No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.11K
- Potential profit
- $3.11K
- User PnL
- -$6
Polymarket Trader
KeithStarmer
0x7ae8b850049d07152b1741fbde10c7b6c0a45a42
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.87K
- Realized PnL
- $2.46K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 23?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.51K
- Potential profit
- $2.51K
- User PnL
- -$9.2
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.8
- Potential payout
- $1.59K
- Potential profit
- $1.59K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $1.4K
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $4.9
- User PnL
- $83.72
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $1.35K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- User PnL
- -$13.33
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.23K
- Potential profit
- $1.23K
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.6
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.6
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.6
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- User PnL
- -$4.83
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- User PnL
- -$26
No position
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$9.25
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.52
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.52
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$71.91
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$3.8
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $997.49
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $2.5
- User PnL
- $131.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 18?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $950.05
- Potential profit
- $950.05
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $704.99
- Potential profit
- $704.99
- User PnL
- -$2.02
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C or below on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $616.29
- Potential profit
- $616.29
- User PnL
- -$1.6
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$2.2
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $472.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $27.5
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $10.5
Yes position
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $3.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $496.75
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$1.32
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $462.28
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26?
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178.16
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.54
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $132.56
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.7
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $94.2
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 22?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.99
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 25?
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.19
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.8
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.3
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 12?
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.7
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.5
Yes position
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.1
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 18?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $56.62
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.5
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 27?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.96
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 25?
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.88
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 20?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.99
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 99.5% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 3.2% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Yes 4.5% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Yes 1% 100 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 84.7% 45.55 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Yes 5.9% 50 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 98.8% 699.98 shares
- Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026?No 93% 86.17 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 99% 200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 84.7% 100 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 81.2% 200 shares
- Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 88.6% 124.41 shares