rhinogiraffe

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.86
Potential payout: $636
Potential profit: $633.14
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$5.74

Yes position

Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $42.52
Potential payout: $611.83
Potential profit: $569.3
Multiplier: 14.39x
User PnL: $30.29

No position

Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $241.02
Potential payout: $541.62
Potential profit: $300.6
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $2.71

Yes position

Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $105.3
Potential payout: $540
Potential profit: $434.7
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $8.1

Yes position

Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $61.18
Potential payout: $532
Potential profit: $470.82
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$34.58

Yes position

Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $473.48
Potential payout: $532
Potential profit: $58.52
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $53.2

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.27
Potential payout: $504.52
Potential profit: $502.25
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$12.55

Yes position

Will Colombia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $16.63
Potential payout: $504
Potential profit: $487.37
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: $6.55

Yes position

Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $91.93
Potential payout: $496.93
Potential profit: $405
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$19.76

No position

Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $85.51
Potential payout: $488.61
Potential profit: $403.11
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$8.89

Yes position

Will Norway be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $16.25
Potential payout: $484.97
Potential profit: $468.72
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$10.21

No position

Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $130.18
Potential payout: $426.83
Potential profit: $296.65
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $8.16

No position

Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $240.85
Potential payout: $422.62
Potential profit: $181.77
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $16.86

No position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $92.27
Potential payout: $401.16
Potential profit: $308.89
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $5.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $372.32
Potential profit: $372.32
User PnL: -$336.73

Yes position

Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $363.07
Potential profit: $363.07
User PnL: -$15.29

No position

Will Jordan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $38.09
Potential payout: $362.78
Potential profit: $324.68
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$23.28

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $76.33
Potential payout: $355
Potential profit: $278.68
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$5.33

Yes position

Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $142
Potential payout: $355
Potential profit: $213
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $16.46

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $108.28
Potential payout: $355
Potential profit: $246.73
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$5.33

No position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $191.91
Potential payout: $345.78
Potential profit: $153.87
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $40.65

Yes position

Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 42.7%
Current value: $134.38
Potential payout: $315.07
Potential profit: $180.69
Multiplier: 2.34x
User PnL: -$24.45

No position

Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $281.71
Potential payout: $314.76
Potential profit: $33.05
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $29.13

No position

Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $9.8
Potential payout: $311
Potential profit: $301.2
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: $0.47

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Knicks position

Spurs vs. Knicks

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $721.9

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $622

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: $595.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $585.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $370.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $304.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $235.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.59

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $188.92

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $161.45

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $125.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $123.44

Yes position

Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $112.55

No position

Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.01

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.26

Yes position

Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.23

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.39

Yes position

Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $63.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.5

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.34

No position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $40.59

Yes position

Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Implied probability: 43%
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $39.11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?