Polymarket Trader

ckclaw

0x7b1daa6472a9b76711051eee674d421e8e3dc04f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $22.7
Realized PnL: $80.88
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $2.81
Potential payout: $170
Potential profit: $167.2
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $1.79

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $34.35
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$0.37

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $2.94
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $9.06
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $3.58
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $7.43
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $0.61

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $6
User PnL: -$3.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.07
Potential profit: $5.07
User PnL: -$3.65

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 83.3%
Current value: $4.17
Potential payout: $5.01
Potential profit: $0.84
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$3.9

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 10AM ET

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$4.15

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$3.75

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 65.7%
Current value: $2.35
Potential payout: $3.58
Potential profit: $1.23
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: -$0.65

No position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 87.6%
Current value: $3.13
Potential payout: $3.57
Potential profit: $0.44
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $3.09
Potential payout: $3.29
Potential profit: $0.2
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.12

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.41

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.39

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.22

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.79

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.47

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.39

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.32

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.14

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.08

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.96

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94

Up position

XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.86

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.73

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.64

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.32

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Up 64% 5.25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Down 78% 5 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?

Yes 2.9% 35 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

No 12% 12 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?

No 27% 11 shares
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?

No 0.6% 170 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

Down 69% 5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

Up 72% 5 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Up 75% 5 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 3.6% 27.78 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 3.5% 28.57 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 9PM ET

Up 83.6% 5 shares