Yes position
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $18
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.98K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$18
Polymarket Trader
SpilledWater
0x7babd217c09df3a015e9a98325043190beaa8322
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $474.1
- Realized PnL
- $1.97K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $37
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.96K
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $24.65
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$7.65
Yes position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $23.4
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- $5.4
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $60.63
- Potential payout
- $954.83
- Potential profit
- $894.2
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- $23.12
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $39.55
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $660.45
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- $3.85
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $15.75
- Potential payout
- $500.01
- Potential profit
- $484.26
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $11.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $488.5
- Multiplier
- 43.48x
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.18
- Potential payout
- $355.57
- Potential profit
- $355.39
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.72
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.1%
- Current value
- $43.73
- Potential payout
- $309.29
- Potential profit
- $265.56
- Multiplier
- 7.07x
- User PnL
- $17.23
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.9%
- Current value
- $17.89
- Potential payout
- $259.26
- Potential profit
- $241.37
- Multiplier
- 14.49x
- User PnL
- $3.09
Yes position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $3.79
- Potential payout
- $236.78
- Potential profit
- $232.99
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- -$11.99
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.8%
- Current value
- $59.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $140.5
- Multiplier
- 3.36x
- User PnL
- $41.1
No position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$36
Yes position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $3.97
- Potential payout
- $198.57
- Potential profit
- $194.6
- Multiplier
- 50.00x
- User PnL
- -$25.81
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $11.29
- Potential payout
- $125.49
- Potential profit
- $114.19
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$15.06
Yes position
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $8.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $91.5
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $94.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $5.55
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.45
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.32
- Potential payout
- $14.91
- Potential profit
- $14.59
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $275.28
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $257.12
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.97
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $132.31
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.72
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.87
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.8
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.08
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.5
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.41
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $44.03
No position
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.16
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $42.75
Yes position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.73
Yes position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.51
Yes position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $37
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36.79
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.7
Yes position
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.12
Yes position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.41
No position
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.62
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 5.5% 154.83 shares
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes 9% 100 shares
- Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.1% 2,000 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No 5.4% 209.26 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 0.7% 499.99 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 1% 499.99 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?Yes 68% 50 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 4.7% 299.95 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 4.2% 200 shares
- Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Over 44% 40 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 4.8% 217.26 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 12.3% 300 shares