athena08

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $141.19
Potential payout: $2.17K
Potential profit: $2.03K
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$52.53

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $148.42
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $951.02
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$41.57

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $404.79
Potential payout: $406.01
Potential profit: $1.22
User PnL: $24.79

No position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $132.88
Potential payout: $396.65
Potential profit: $263.77
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$22.13

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $282.37
Potential payout: $291.7
Potential profit: $9.33
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $94.12

No position

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $161.21
Potential payout: $290.48
Potential profit: $129.26
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $61.21

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: June

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $282.22
Potential payout: $286.81
Potential profit: $4.59
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $21.22

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $156.76
Potential payout: $270.27
Potential profit: $113.51
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: $56.76

No position

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $224.48
Potential payout: $225.83
Potential profit: $1.35
User PnL: $24.48

No position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $217.87
Potential payout: $221.98
Potential profit: $4.11
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $17.87

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $211.7
Potential payout: $212.77
Potential profit: $1.06
User PnL: $11.7

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $161.73
Potential payout: $211.41
Potential profit: $49.68
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $32.77

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $162.45
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $27.55
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $54.15

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $159.27
Potential payout: $177.96
Potential profit: $18.69
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $29.36

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $159.44
Potential payout: $162.37
Potential profit: $2.92
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $8.44

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.8%
Current value: $133.24
Potential payout: $159.09
Potential profit: $25.85
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $39.49

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $53.1
Potential payout: $158.51
Potential profit: $105.41
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $3.1

No position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $148.85
Potential payout: $149.75
Potential profit: $0.9
User PnL: $30.27

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $105.11
Potential payout: $113.64
Potential profit: $8.52
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $5.11

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $82.04
Potential payout: $107.24
Potential profit: $25.2
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $48.79

No position

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $102.92
Potential payout: $103.54
Potential profit: $0.62
User PnL: $2.92

No position

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $420 in June?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $98.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $1.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $11.5

No position

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $60.78
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $1.72
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $35.78

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $53.26
Potential payout: $53.77
Potential profit: $0.51
User PnL: $3.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $629.33

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $289.22

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $262.17

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218.74

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $200.82

No position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 Week of May 11 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195.32

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $161

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.54

No position

Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.41

No position

Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.99

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.95

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $119.92

No position

Iran leadership change by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.82

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.8

No position

Kash Patel out by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.29

No position

Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.86

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.77

No position

US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.96

No position

Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly reconcile by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.37

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.2

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.93

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?