Saintofcircumstance

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $11.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $38.25
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $6.25

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $9.5
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $40.5
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $41
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $3.5

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $24.03
Potential payout: $46.66
Potential profit: $22.63
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $8.33
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $36.68
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $3.37

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $14.16
Potential payout: $43.57
Potential profit: $29.41
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $9.37

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $13.77
Potential payout: $30.61
Potential profit: $16.83
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $0.16

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $1.93
Potential payout: $24.09
Potential profit: $22.16
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$3.37

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $11.54
Potential payout: $16.37
Potential profit: $4.83
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.96
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

Josué Duverger: 3+ saves

Implied probability: 47.8%
Current value: $4.78
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $5.22
Multiplier: 2.09x
User PnL: $3.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $5.42
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $0.14
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.95
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Munir El Kajoui: 2+ saves

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.5
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.99
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.93
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.9
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.9
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Jhon Arias: 3+ goals

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.38
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.97
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.99
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.9
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$0.45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.68

FURIA position

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.77

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $68.28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.47

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.73

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.78

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.42

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.81

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.02

Down position

Solana Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.28

Toronto Tempo position

Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.34

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.64

Up position

Solana Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.35

Over position

Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.76

Detroit Tigers position

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.24

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET