No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $112.08
- Potential payout
- $140.99
- Potential profit
- $28.9
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $12.08
Polymarket Trader
manuelit0
0x7c6705e73d990c7d9509d8e50a40efa07bf256d3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $129.64
- Realized PnL
- $1.88K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.25
- Potential profit
- $113.25
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.8%
- Current value
- $6.23
- Potential payout
- $92.31
- Potential profit
- $86.08
- Multiplier
- 14.81x
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.6
- Potential profit
- $83.6
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $11.33
- Potential payout
- $12.66
- Potential profit
- $1.33
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.33
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $316.8
Yes position
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $187.72
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.88
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.49
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.84
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.75
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.36
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.23
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.8
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.62
No position
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.16
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.33
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.4
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.23
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.99
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.5
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.39
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.81
Yes position
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.49
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 6.5% 92.31 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 70.9% 140.99 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 79% 12.66 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes 97.1% 411.95 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes 97% 515.31 shares
- Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes 4% 114.28 shares
- Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings?Yes 88.8% 30.42 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 68% 142.85 shares
- Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes 7% 114.29 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 84% 357.14 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ETDown 86% 116.28 shares
- Will Juventus finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Yes 5% 12.85 shares