Yes position
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $3.74
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.49K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$96.25
Polymarket Trader
cervlord
0x7cdc0a3bda5e11762a12a20422f2dfb39bdf5759
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $384.91
- Realized PnL
- -$248.8
- Win rate
- 31.3%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 16
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 20.2%
- Current value
- $153.89
- Potential payout
- $761.82
- Potential profit
- $607.93
- Multiplier
- 4.95x
- User PnL
- $103.89
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $42.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $457.5
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.7%
- Current value
- $24.3
- Potential payout
- $315.59
- Potential profit
- $291.29
- Multiplier
- 12.99x
- User PnL
- -$25.7
Yes position
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $254.87
- Potential profit
- $254.23
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$49.36
Yes position
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $50.39
- Potential payout
- $155.04
- Potential profit
- $104.65
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- -$8.15
Yes position
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $25.21
- Potential payout
- $112.05
- Potential profit
- $86.84
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $1.68
No position
Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $72.68
- Potential payout
- $79.87
- Potential profit
- $7.19
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $25.47
Yes position
Will Meta launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $11.56
- Potential payout
- $44.48
- Potential profit
- $32.91
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- $0.44
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $142.01
Yes position
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.37
Yes position
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.23
No position
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $2.03
No position
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.28
Yes position
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Trump and JD Vance only be photographed together during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 3-9?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14.95
Yes position
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$22.77
Yes position
Will Trump and JD Vance handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Will Violet Bridgerton get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$80
No position
Will John Stirling die in Bridgerton: Season 4?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$116
No position
Will Rosamund Li get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$120
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 21% 112.05 shares
- Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 59.1% 79.87 shares
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?No 97.9% 49.31 shares
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?No 95.3% 49.32 shares
- Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 3-9?No 5% 100 shares
- Will John Stirling die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No 2% 101.15 shares
- Will John Stirling die in Bridgerton: Season 4?No 12.3% 236.18 shares
- Will Rosamund Li get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?No 9.9% 201.43 shares
- China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 10.3% 263.47 shares
- Will Violet Bridgerton get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?No 11.5% 434.72 shares
- Will Rosamund Li get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?No 9.2% 542.24 shares
- Will Rosamund Li get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?No 5% 400.23 shares