0x7D3320778860940e24bdB9Fd1a93FD3365BeC15F-1762298055834

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $26.8
Potential payout: $34.58
Potential profit: $7.78
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug?

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $24.53
Potential payout: $33.14
Potential profit: $8.62
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $0.53

No position

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $28.36
Potential payout: $32.41
Potential profit: $4.05
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.36

Yes position

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $8.16
Potential payout: $30.8
Potential profit: $22.63
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $13.28
Potential payout: $30.17
Potential profit: $16.9
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $9.37
Potential payout: $28.4
Potential profit: $19.03
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$5.63

No position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $11.7
Potential payout: $26
Potential profit: $14.3
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $22.3
Potential payout: $25.63
Potential profit: $3.33
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $2.3

No position

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $20.64
Potential payout: $22.32
Potential profit: $1.67
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.64

No position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $20.07
Potential payout: $21.13
Potential profit: $1.06
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $5.07

No position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 49%
Current value: $8.71
Potential payout: $17.78
Potential profit: $9.07
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: $0.71

No position

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $13.68
Potential payout: $17.65
Potential profit: $3.97
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $1.68

No position

X banned in any European country by December 31?

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $13.18
Potential payout: $16.9
Potential profit: $3.72
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $1.18

No position

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $8.74
Potential payout: $16.48
Potential profit: $7.75
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $0.73

No position

US bank failure by June 30?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $15.53
Potential payout: $16.44
Potential profit: $0.9
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $3.53

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $14.19
Potential payout: $16.22
Potential profit: $2.03
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $2.19

No position

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?

Implied probability: 80.2%
Current value: $12.83
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $3.17
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $1.31

No position

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $11.25
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $3.75
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $14.03
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.97
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $2.03

No position

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $12.66
Potential payout: $14.63
Potential profit: $1.98
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.66

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $12.78
Potential payout: $14.12
Potential profit: $1.34
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.78

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $11.93
Potential payout: $13.64
Potential profit: $1.7
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $8.1
Potential payout: $11.57
Potential profit: $3.47
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $6.86
Potential payout: $11.43
Potential profit: $4.57
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: -$1.14

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.62

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.86

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.98

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.08

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.92

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.17

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.91

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.08

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.39

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.98

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.8

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.64

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.82

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.19

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.65

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.21

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.04

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.78

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET