uponlyalpha

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1K
Potential payout: $400K
Potential profit: $399K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $831.75
Potential payout: $332.7K
Potential profit: $331.87K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$168.35

Yes position

Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 9.2%
Current value: $181.95
Potential payout: $1.98K
Potential profit: $1.8K
Multiplier: 10.87x
User PnL: -$43.98

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $34.04
Potential payout: $1.84K
Potential profit: $1.81K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $75.95
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $624.05
Multiplier: 9.22x
User PnL: -$14.35

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $96.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $403.25
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: $16.25

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $17.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $482.75
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: $7.25

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $482.93
Potential profit: $482.93
User PnL: -$9.66

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $9.63
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $440.37
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: $1.63

No position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $220
User PnL: -$83.6

Yes position

Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $217.94
Potential profit: $217.94
User PnL: -$72.05

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.9
Potential profit: $208.9
User PnL: -$12.53

Yes position

Will Justin Hood win the PDC World Darts Championship?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $207.38
Potential profit: $207.38
User PnL: -$7.47

Yes position

idOS FDV above $80M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $168.51
Potential profit: $168.51
User PnL: -$7.18

Yes position

Will Luke Humphries win the PDC World Darts Championship?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $160
User PnL: -$25.6

No position

Block Street FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $160
User PnL: -$5.37

Yes position

Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-21?

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108.33
Potential profit: $108.33
User PnL: -$19.42

Yes position

Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100.72
Potential profit: $100.72
User PnL: -$11.68

Yes position

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-10-21?

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$16

Yes position

Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.85
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $19.04
Potential payout: $97.63
Potential profit: $78.59
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $3.78

Yes position

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-21?

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$15.7

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2025-12-29?

Ends Dec 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$7.2

No position

Block Street FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.66
Potential profit: $7.66
User PnL: -$3.83

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 18%
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $225.7

No position

Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.08

Yes position

Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $104.46

Yes position

Space FDV above $40M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $96.11

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.68

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.72

No position

Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.51

Yes position

Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39

No position

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $29.38

No position

Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.03

Yes position

Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.99

No position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.37

Yes position

Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: $16.4

Yes position

Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.3

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $12

No position

Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25?

Ends Nov 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.54

No position

Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.69

No position

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.96

Yes position

Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.85

Yes position

Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.96

No position

Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

No position

Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

No position

Paradex FDV above $5B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.85

Yes position

Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?