Yes position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $1.92K
- Potential payout
- $5.72K
- Potential profit
- $3.8K
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$1.4K
Polymarket Trader
honest-owl
0x7d9d89dc8115622d39c80cc19b00cd6b0c054c53
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.1K
- Realized PnL
- -$1.51K
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 10
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $178
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $222
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$46
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $7
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $92.99
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- $484.49
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $6.28
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.3
Y
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.45
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$72.19
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$239.59
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$328.22
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$364.5
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.01K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes 47% 19.99 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?No 72% 216.35 shares
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?No 71% 257.57 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?No 77.8% 352.2 shares
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?Yes 98.4% 150.13 shares
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Yes 47% 10 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?No 76.5% 30 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes 25.6% 100.17 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes 31% 33.62 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes 30% 11 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes 30.9% 310 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes 30.3% 20 shares