breakingcute

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $3K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $4.5
User PnL: $141.61

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $23
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $5

Thunder position

Thunder vs. Spurs

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$127.99

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $1.13K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $367.5
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $153.5

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $951.5
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $148.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $197.5

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$240.99

No position

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $752.39
Potential profit: $752.39
User PnL: -$94.93

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 15.3%
Current value: $108.28
Potential payout: $710
Potential profit: $601.73
Multiplier: 6.56x
User PnL: $47.93

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $600.23
Potential profit: $597.53
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$33.31

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $543
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $57
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $48

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.4
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $597.6
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$19.8

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $31.5
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $568.5
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $575.7
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $24.3
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $34.5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $22.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $477.5
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$45.5

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $494.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $5.25
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $15.75

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $96.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $403.25
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: $14.75

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $496
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $4
User PnL: $26.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $498.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $1.25
User PnL: $38.25

Yes position

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.75
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $494.24
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$165.25

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$144

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $13.8
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $386.2
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$1.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11K

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $694.76

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $662.87

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?

Ends Dec 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $647.69

No position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $601.15

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $593.29

Yes position

Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $448.22

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $431

No position

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $422.43

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $387.84

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $325

Yes position

Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $324.39

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $316.9

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $307.5

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $303

No position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $292.31

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $285.5

Yes position

Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?

Ends Oct 24, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $263.8

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.14

Yes position

Will Marty Supreme make 70 million or more domestically by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $216.39

No position

Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.92

No position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?