No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $744.87
- Potential profit
- $744.87
- User PnL
- -$460.01
Polymarket Trader
lightsout912
0x7e1d3cb44c3f2a6ec9abc667820ee2645bd44d41
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $331.28
- Realized PnL
- $2.82K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $489.26
- Potential profit
- $489.26
- User PnL
- -$47.45
Khamzat Chimaev position
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $370.37
- Potential profit
- $370.37
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $219.99
- Potential profit
- $219.99
- User PnL
- -$10.08
Yes position
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $216.07
- Potential profit
- $216.07
- User PnL
- -$108.63
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $206.58
- Potential profit
- $206.58
- User PnL
- -$9.69
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $147
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $53
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$17
Yes position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $180
- User PnL
- -$93.6
Yes position
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $133.45
- Potential payout
- $170
- Potential profit
- $36.55
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $18.45
Yes position
Will any AI model reach 1540 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.7%
- Current value
- $15.98
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $134.03
- Multiplier
- 9.39x
- User PnL
- -$16.02
Yes position
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $2.5
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $122.5
- Multiplier
- 50.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Y
Yes position
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $123
- Potential profit
- $123
- User PnL
- -$110.86
Spurs position
Spurs vs. Knicks
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $120
- User PnL
- -$98.4
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $2.28
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $117.72
- Multiplier
- 52.63x
- User PnL
- -$6.12
Under position
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $116
- Potential profit
- $116
- User PnL
- -$15.54
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.5
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$23.5
Yes position
Will Frank Ocean attend the Met Gala?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99
- Potential profit
- $99
- User PnL
- -$0.2
No position
Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78
- Potential profit
- $78
- User PnL
- -$6.55
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.8%
- Current value
- $6.13
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $63.88
- Multiplier
- 11.43x
- User PnL
- $4.03
Yes position
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.99
- Potential profit
- $59.99
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second-best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Over position
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$1.2
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $19.45
- Potential payout
- $28.82
- Potential profit
- $9.37
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$1.59
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400.04
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $191.96
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $181.5
No position
Up Only podcast released by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.35
Yes position
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.99
Yes position
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.8
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.35
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.58
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.22
No position
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.33
No position
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.05
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98
No position
Up Only podcast released by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.46
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.6
No position
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.44
No position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.19
No position
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.8
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.86
No position
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.6
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75
No position
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.01
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.95
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.2
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?Yes 3.8% 125 shares
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes 99% 200 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes 92% 1,000 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 3% 12 shares
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?Yes 90.1% 123 shares
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?No 98% 50 shares
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?No 98% 48.74 shares
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?No 98% 50 shares
- Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No 36.1% 168.03 shares
- Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No 22% 17.46 shares
- Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 89.3% 80 shares
- Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 90% 80 shares