Polymarket Trader

emilioestrada

0x7f871df165566674f224d07166ca5675c5fa134d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $125.31
Realized PnL: $206.83
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $3
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$7

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $54.94
Potential payout: $85.19
Potential profit: $30.24
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $4.94

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $10.69
Potential payout: $68.97
Potential profit: $58.28
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$9.31

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $53.34
Potential payout: $54.82
Potential profit: $1.48
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $23.34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $45.45
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $45.45
User PnL: -$5

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.79
Potential profit: $32.79
User PnL: -$20

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $28.57
User PnL: -$20

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $22.73
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.36
Potential profit: $11.36
User PnL: -$10

Up position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $3.33
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $7.78
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: -$1.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.24
Potential profit: $9.24
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $8
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.77
Potential profit: $7.77
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.71
Potential profit: $2.71
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.17
Potential profit: $2.17
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $36.61

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.96

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.43

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.96

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 24?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.25

Yes position

Will Trump say "Reverse Migration" in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.94

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.68

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.26

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.05

Yes position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.73

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.78

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.73

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.42

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.37

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.78

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.75

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.46

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.14

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 61% 32.79 shares
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Up 45% 11.11 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 54% 18.52 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 29% 68.97 shares
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.5% 2,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 92% 94.51 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

Up 46% 2.17 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

No 70% 28.57 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 60% 66.67 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Up 25% 4 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Up 25% 4 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Up 29% 10.5 shares